The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation presented a spring update for its 7-year forecast for the development of air transport in Europe in the post-pandemic period. The study was first published last August and aims to forecast the development of the air transport industry between 2023 and 2029. Accordingly, in its focus, among other factors, was the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, which closed the airspace over our country for civil aviation.
According to Eurocontrol’s forecast, flight restrictions over Ukraine may last until 2029. But it should not be taken too dramatically. This information is contained in the section that describes the key risk factors that influenced the forecast. However, the length of the forecast (as much as 7 years) is a risk factor in itself, because no one can predict the future. In this way, the researchers included in the calculations possible restrictions in the airspace of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Moldova for the entire length of the forecast, that is, until 2029.
Of course, this information will be updated depending on the real situation. Eurocontrol has already released the first revised update of the forecast and will update it more than once in the coming years. Thus, no one knows for sure whether restrictions on civil aviation flights over the sky of Ukraine will be in effect until 2029 or not. This depends exclusively on the security situation and the state of the Ukrainian infrastructure, which should provide air transportation over the territory of our country.