Global PC shipments grew 6.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, driven by expectations of tariffs from US President Donald Trump and increased shipments of AI-powered computers as Windows 10 support ends, according to a new report from research firm Counterpoint.
However, analysts warn that this growth may be temporary, as inventories are likely to stabilize in the coming weeks. In addition, the impact of US tariffs is expected to slow growth through 2025.
"Going forward, competitive dynamics will be shaped by OEMs’ ability to diversify their supply chains and manufacturing bases, in addition to positioning themselves to offer the best AI PC experiences by striking key ecosystem partnerships, from silicon to software to model vendors," said William Lee, senior analyst at Counterpoint.
Apple saw the biggest growth among individual companies, with Mac shipments up 17%, thanks in part to the new MacBook series with M4 chips. Lenovo came in second, with shipments up 11% thanks to its expanded AI PC lineup and maintaining its position as the world's largest supplier. In total, 61.4 million PCs were shipped in the first three months of 2025.
Global PC manufacturing remains largely concentrated in China, creating challenges for the industry in mitigating future tariff risks. Despite the removal of tariffs on laptops, the situation remains uncertain due to the potential imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration on semiconductors and other technology products.
Counterpoint analysts predict that laptop ODMs and EMS companies will continue to shift production from China to other countries such as Vietnam, India and Mexico, despite these regions also facing tariff barriers. According to the company, the priority for PC manufacturers is now to move all production for the US market outside of China.
Overall, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have created significant uncertainty in the industry in 2025. Manufacturers face rising costs, as well as the risk of reduced demand and supply. The temporary lifting of some tariffs has provided short-term relief, but the prospect of new U.S. tariffs on semiconductors could disrupt supply chains and negatively impact demand and investment in AI infrastructure.