China expects to have at least 300,000 driverless robo-taxis operating in the country's four largest cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, by 2030, SCMP reports.
Paul Gong, head of China automotive research at Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), estimates that robo-taxis in mainland China could generate up to $183 billion a year, if all two million taxis and five million cars on ride-hailing platforms were replaced with driverless taxis.
Gong is not yet saying when the robo-taxis business will be commercialized, as it depends on regulations and consumer reaction. However, he is not the only one making such predictions. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) said last month that robo-taxis will account for 6% of the total taxi market in China. The bank says such services could bring in $40 billion a year, but it also did not say when that will happen.
HSBC believes that in addition to transporting passengers, autonomous taxis in China are also expected to generate up to $30 billion a year in delivery and logistics services. Gong notes that this will be facilitated by the lower cost of producing electric vehicles with autonomous driving technology, which he predicts will fall to 300,000 yuan (~$41,935).
Pilotless taxis from Apollo, Pony.ai, and WeRide are already being tested in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. So far, the companies have launched only dozens of such vehicles, but the main emphasis is on low fares: in some cases, a ride in a robo-taxis costs only 10% of the average price of a regular taxi.
The largest is Apollo, a division of Baidu. In Wuhan, it operates hundreds of driverless cars that can service about 35% of all roads in the city. This means that more than a third of the transport network is already available for autonomous transportation.
Another Chinese autonomous driving company, Pony.ai, is preparing to mass produce driverless taxis to make its service widely available and cheaper, as technological advances have helped it shorten the path to commercialization.