In early August, a Russian Gerber drone entered Lithuanian airspace without hindrance and crashed right on a military training ground. A few days earlier, the same drone spent several hours in the sky over Vilnius. These brazen provocations come against the backdrop of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's warning that Russia is ready for war with the Alliance within the next five years.
Similar warnings are coming from Berlin: German intelligence is warning about the reality of a new major conflict with Russia. European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius also warns: "We consider a new war a very realistic scenario. And the only way to deter a Russian attack is to increase our readiness for it."
In March, EU countries adopted an ambitious military readiness plan, complemented by a financial package called ReArm Europe. Its total amount is 800 billion euros, divided into two parts.
The first part is 650 billion euros, which EU countries must gradually allocate from their national defense budgets by 2030.
The second part is 150 billion euros under the new SAFE mechanism. It allows EU countries to take out soft loans for joint arms purchases. Money for SAFE is raised through the placement of Eurobonds, guaranteed by the EU budget. The Commission acts as a guarantor of debt financing, but the member states themselves take out loans, joining together in consortia.
For example, several countries could create a joint procurement structure to order FPV drones or air defense systems, and receive money for it now. And the payments would be spread out over time or compensated from other budgetary instruments.
But is the allocated money alone enough to prepare for war with Russia? It depends on how quickly and effectively the countries can spend it. And how well the purchased equipment and changes made in the armies will meet the challenges of modern warfare.
The most acute issue here is the issue of combat drones, without which it is now impossible to imagine a modern battlefield. It is drones that inflict the bulk of damage, carry out mining, and also perform reconnaissance and support tasks. With the growth of their presence on the battlefield, large-scale tank offensives have become practically impossible.
If Russia and Ukraine were changing simultaneously, outpacing each other in various aspects of technological warfare, then European armies did not have such an incentive and, accordingly, would not be able to resist for long an enemy that has been waging the most technological war in human history for three and a half years.
Just like the US and China, European countries are closely monitoring Ukraine's use of drones on the battlefield.
The European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) states: Europe must urgently establish large-scale production of drones, and do it alone - with minimal dependence on third countries.
And in the White Paper "Readiness 2030" (a strategic document in which the EU defines key defense priorities and directions for security development), drones and countering them officially became one of the seven critical priorities for the future European security architecture, on a par with air defense, shells, missiles, AI, logistics, and infrastructure.
Ironically, the European Union is one of the key regions for the drone industry in the world, with about 40% of the world's drone companies located there. In 2021, the European Union even invested €100 million in the creation of the "Eurodrone", a long-range reconnaissance and strike drone similar to the American RQ-9 Reaper.
Already after the start of the great war, the EU allocated 200 million euros to the development and production of drones "of all sizes and tasks."
However, the presence of a developed civilian industry does not mean readiness for drone warfare. As the European Parliament recognizes, the armed forces of member states are significantly inferior to Ukraine and Russia in the number of drones. Some armies have only a few, large and expensive drones that are not capable of large-scale use on the front. At the same time, no EU army has a sufficient stock of drones and loitering ammunition to wage war, as in Ukraine.
Ukraine as a lifeline
Drone production in Ukraine and Russia is already measured in millions of units per year. Millions of flight hours give rise to relevant and effective technologies that cannot be created only by testing weapons at a range.
So where should Europeans, who have not been at war with anyone for many years, start? In this race for technological superiority, EU leaders realize that it will be difficult to catch up with their opponents on their own. That is why they are betting in particular on a partnership with Ukraine, which is already recognized as the undisputed leader in the production of combat drones in Europe.
The first real step towards joint drone production in Europe was the creation of the so-called "Drone Coalition" - an initiative led by Latvia and the UK, joined by 18 countries. Its key goal is not only to transfer drones to Ukraine, but also to financially support its own drone industry, as drones will also be purchased from European companies.
In 2024, coalition members managed to accumulate 1.8 billion euros, and an even more ambitious goal has been announced for 2025 - to raise an additional 2.75 billion. Thanks to this initiative, tenders are being held for the supply of drones to Ukraine, the development of advanced FPV drones, interceptor drones, and tactical-level reconnaissance UAVs.
This has launched the development of the drone industry in some countries. For example, the Netherlands announced that it will invest 700 million euros in drone production - half of the funds will go to production in Ukraine, and half will be used to create drones within the country.
The United Kingdom plans to invest about $570 million per year in drones over 10 years and increase the number of drones produced to 100,000 by the end of 2025.
Russia's neighbors have become particularly active in the development of FPV drones. One Latvian manufacturer has already won a contract worth 24 million euros to supply Ukraine within the framework of this coalition. The same applies to Lithuania. The local Meridein Grupp plans to launch a large factory in the Baltic countries, capable of producing up to 2,000 drones per day.
Finland plans to open a drone production line capable of meeting the needs of both the Armed Forces of Ukraine and EU countries.
Poland plans to purchase drones worth at least $55 million, with the possibility of increasing purchases if the manufacturers can meet the army's needs. It is significant that all of the aforementioned countries are actively cooperating with Ukrainian drone manufacturers.
European countries are also interested in direct cooperation with Ukrainian companies, not just in adopting experience and obtaining contracts within the "coalition".
Thus, the French publication La Tribune reported that many representatives of the French defense industry expressed interest in cooperating with Ukrainian manufacturers in various fields, in particular, to develop a "shield" that would intercept Russian drones.
A joint venture between Ukrainian DeViRo (Leleka and Bulava UAVs) and a local company has opened in the Czech Republic. Ukrainian Skyeton (Raybird UAV) has launched production in Slovakia, and Ukrspetssystems (Shark UAVs, PD-2, RAM-2X) has launched production in Poland.
Ukrainian companies are also opening production facilities in other countries, as a result of interdepartmental agreements. For example, Ukraine will produce its drones in Denmark and the United Kingdom.
Europe's bet on drone production in partnership with Ukraine seems not only logical, but also strategically far-sighted. Ukraine today is a unique platform that combines the development, production, and combat testing of drones in the real conditions of modern warfare.
As Katya Bego, a senior fellow at the Chatham House think tank, notes:“If European countries are really determined to purchase drones in the quantities and at the speed they are talking about, they should do it in Ukraine – and together with Ukraine.”
However, a breakthrough in drone production and technology alone may not be enough. Learning how to use them is equally important.
"Achieving the scale relevant for deterrence and defense is more than a matter of defense production. It is the ability to use prototypes, train operators, integrate into logistics and the military" - Skip Davis, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
For progress, it is necessary to deepen cooperation between military structures and civilian companies. Many innovations are developed by small startups or commercial firms that have never collaborated with the army. Therefore, comfortable conditions are needed that will provide space for experiments and iterations.
The United States is already creating such an environment. For example, the country launched a marketplace for the military to buy drones. This is an exact imitation of the Ukrainian experience, where similar platforms have appeared for simplified purchase of rapidly changing technologies.
However, arms exports from Ukraine are still not officially open, and the European Union itself does not fully understand what exactly its military needs on the battlefield. Therefore, the development of the European drone industry will largely depend on the exchange of experience and the initiative of both partners to further bring their defense industries closer together.
An important step for Ukraine was the opening up to testing European developments on a real battlefield. The corresponding Brave1 initiative "Test in Ukraine" has already collected 45 applications from partners to test their weapons.
An example of such Ukrainian-European cooperation is the startup company Helsing, which supplies Ukraine with "lancet-shaped" kamikaze drones HF-1 and HX-2 with the ability to operate at a range of 100 km and using AI.
It is expected that the Ukrainian Defense Forces will receive 4,000 HF-1 drones, created in partnership with Ukrainian industry, as well as 6,000 HX-2 devices, manufactured in Germany.
The manufacturers of these drones have already faced criticism from the Ukrainian military, particularly over the price of the product and the software. But this is precisely why the drones are being handed over to our Defense Forces.
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According to the Ukrainian Prism think tank, to ensure its own security, Europe must produce about 2 million drones annually and increase production by 20% each year. It will also be necessary to continue reducing production costs by 30–50%, localize the entire production cycle, and continue active development.
Ukraine plays a key role in this equation. Its unique combat experience, technology, and vibrant drone developer ecosystem make it an indispensable partner in preparing for a possible war with Russia. European countries understand this – and more and more governments and companies are opening up to joint projects with Ukrainian manufacturers. This is not just a partnership – it is a chance for the entire region to make a technological leap and take the lead in the global drone race.