Gunpowder for shells starts with cotton. How Ukraine is mastering "defense" agriculture

While Russia's war against Ukraine is not yet nearing its end, military escalations are taking place on several continents, and everyone is already mentally preparing for World War III, the world is experiencing a huge shortage of gunpowder. Without gunpowder, there will be no shells for howitzers, no cartridges for machine guns, and therefore no victory in wars.

Gunpowder production does not begin at a gunpowder factory. It begins in the fields where the necessary raw material is grown in the open air – cotton, from which cotton is obtained.

Cotton fiber is 95% cellulose, which must be converted into nitrocellulose. When mixed with other substances, nitrocellulose is converted into smokeless powder, which ultimately becomes the most scarce component for ammunition.

The ability to secure strategic raw materials and not depend on unreliable geopolitical players is becoming a political mainstream around the world.

Ukraine understands this like no other. For the second year now, our country has been conducting an experiment in growing its own cotton with an eye on gunpowder production chains. How successful is it?

The article was prepared based on video material from the international analytical community Resurgam.

Not a new culture for Ukraine

Since the 1930s, there have been attempts to grow cotton on an industrial scale in southern Ukraine. However, such an experiment was unsuccessful due to the unfavorable climate and low yields.

However, in May 2024, cotton cultivation returned. The government of the now independent Ukraine launched an experimental project in the south of the country. Has the climate become more favorable? Yes.

"Today, climatic conditions are changing very quickly. And if we talk about our state, the climatic zone has shifted by almost 100 kilometers. Today, the Odessa region has the same climate as before, for example, in Crimea. And climatic changes are positive for growing cotton," explains Alla Stoyanova, head of the NGO "Agrarians of Odessa Region."

Climate change is particularly noticeable in the southern regions – Kherson, Mykolaiv, and especially the southern part of Odessa region in the Prydunavye region. This makes cotton a relevant crop for Ukrainian farmers in these regions.

As noted by Vera Borovyk, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, cotton is a very relevant crop, in particular, because it can be grown on unirrigated lands and territories contaminated by military operations. Moreover, cotton is grown as a monoculture and does not reduce yield if grown in one place for up to four years.

Agronomic subtleties

Cotton is a demanding crop: it requires agronomic precision, a favorable climate, and a willingness to play the long game. This is not only a chance, it is also a risk. Because there is a war nearby. Irrigation is destroyed. Markets are only being formed.

We are just getting started: testing varieties, adapting technologies, looking for specialized equipment, studying temperature, moisture, and soil requirements. There are many challenges ahead.

"Last year we conducted testing; 5 varieties were tested. This year – 6 varieties. After the first year, we were able to conclude that cotton can produce a crop. Different varieties with different growing methods, different combinations showed that potentially last year's climate made it possible to harvest from 1.5 to 3 tons of raw cotton from one hectare, depending on the variety," notes Serhiy Melnyk, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Plant Variety Examination.

According to Melnyk, such a cotton harvest is the optimal norm, which shows that it can be grown in the Ukrainian climate. "It is clear that one year is uncharacteristic, testing should be carried out for at least three years, and even better for five years. Then there are even fewer risks. But we don't have that much time to swing around for a long time."

Olga Trofimtseva, head of agriculture and biodiversity at the Ukraine Facility Platform, argues that farmers need economic incentives to scale up a small pilot cotton project to truly commercial areas.

"When we talk about any crop, regardless of whether it is cotton, conventional vegetables, or some kind of berry, we must immediately look at the entire chain from the producer to the end consumer. That is, in fact, we must understand where this crop, where this product will be used. Is there, on the one hand, domestic demand and a domestic market for it, or is there an opportunity for it to export," Trofimtseva notes.

Serhiy Melnyk is convinced that if cotton becomes economically profitable, everyone will grow it. "Two decades ago, no one wanted to grow rapeseed. And when demand for it increased, like for high-temperature oil, biodiesel, meal, and other things, the market immediately took off and everyone started growing this crop." He recalls that previously, a maximum of one ton of rapeseed could be obtained from one hectare, while now it can be up to four tons.

State support

Growing cotton is a certain risk that farmers take on, since they are engaged in an exotic crop. The farmer should not be alone in this process. For a new crop to take root, comprehensive support programs are needed, and most importantly, an understanding of where to sell this raw material. Without established markets and processing, it will remain at the experimental level.

This year, there were about 20 enterprises that expressed a desire to sow and grow cotton. But we will see in a few weeks how many succeeded. Today, farmers who have the opportunity to sow cotton can also receive compensation from the state in the amount of 10 thousand per hectare, which is approximately half of the costs.

"This year, unfortunately, we were a little late in accepting state aid, but we accepted it. It was on April 29, and today, farmers who have the opportunity to sow can receive about 10 thousand hryvnias per hectare. This is compensation from the state.

"Next year, we will definitely advocate for support for those agricultural producers who will grow cotton. And I think we will leave that support at 10 thousand per hectare," said MP Stepan Chernyavsky, who is one of the active leaders of this idea in parliament.

One of the main problems in mass cotton cultivation is the lack of specialized combines. The cost of such used combines is about $250,000.

As Alla Stoyanova notes, last year the cotton was harvested independently by hand, since the plots were small.

"This year, three hectares can also be harvested by hand. It won't be a problem. But next year, if we go to industrial areas, we will need specialized equipment - certain combines for harvesting cotton."

Today we are negotiating with companies, manufacturers that produce such equipment. I spoke, for example, with representatives of the John Deere company. They have such combines, we have already looked at them, they will suit us. They said that if we reach the industrial level, they will be ready to provide us with them," says Stoyanova.

It is clear that Ukrainian cotton can find its market in Ukraine. But then it is necessary to form an appropriate policy in the agro-industrial sector, which will concern not only the cultivation of cotton. So that it does not happen that 30 thousand hectares of cotton will be grown, but there will be problems with sales due to unresolved issues, for example, regarding the use of this cotton for military purposes or even its processing.

Ukraine's needs – 10 thousand tons of cellulose per year

According to Stepan Chernyavsky, the annual need of the Ukrainian defense sector in pulp for the production of gunpowder is 10 thousand tons. To ensure these volumes, it is necessary to sow cotton on an area of approximately 30 thousand hectares.

"At the first stage, we plan that next year we will reach somewhere around 20 thousand hectares. These are our calculations. Primary processing will already appear. I think that the production of gunpowder itself will be with our European partners. But primary processing will be with us in Ukraine," said Stepan Chernyavsky.

Olga Trofimtseva notes that cotton processing will probably also be carried out deeper in Ukraine – closer to the western border. In her opinion, the area of territories under cotton in Ukraine will be even larger – about 50,000-70,000 hectares. But it is necessary that sales markets are provided. "For us, I think, first of all, this is really the European Union market," says Trofimtseva.

It is worth understanding that when processing capacities are created in Ukraine, production and all the most modern technologies will be concentrated in Ukraine, because all this will be done from scratch. The latest equipment and newer technologies will make Ukrainian production more competitive in terms of quality, costs, and in supplying other markets.

Alla Stoyanova notes that 20 thousand hectares will be needed for Ukraine's needs. "If neighboring regions are included: Mykolaiv region, Kherson region, Zaporizhia, and even Vinnytsia region, then we can provide for ourselves and Europe."

Advantages of Ukrainian cotton on the market

What is the norm for us – production without forced or child labor – is increasingly becoming an advantage on the international market. While some cotton products from authoritarian countries are subject to restrictions, Ukraine can offer an ethical and transparent alternative.

But this chance is not unlimited. It is necessary not only to develop production, but also to closely monitor the markets. Because even those countries that declare respect for human rights sometimes turn a blind eye to the origin of raw materials. And here the role of diplomacy is important - to convey that Ukrainian cotton meets not only quality standards, but also the principles of integrity.

Ruslan Myatiyev, editor of Turkmen.news, notes: "The big problem with Turkmen cotton is that it is most often harvested using coercion. This is a practice from Soviet times, when civil servants of various levels were sent to harvest cotton from late August to mid-December. This practice still exists today, with the only difference being that schoolchildren are no longer forced, but budget employees are sent."

For the past ten years, people in Turkmenistan have been given the option of going to pick cotton themselves or paying for a hired worker. "This is also considered forced labor. That is, people are forced to pay for someone else's work out of their own pockets," he said.

Because of this, many Western countries have officially imposed a ban on the import of Turkmen cotton or textiles made from Turkmen cotton since 2018.

"Today, more than 140 global brands, including Nike, Adidas and other major brands, have publicly refused to work with Turkmenistan. That is, if they know that the raw materials come from the country, they will not work with this supplier. That is, Turkmenistan now has very few opportunities to sell its textile products or raw cotton," Myatiyev notes.

A fierce struggle is unfolding on world markets. Cotton is a strategic raw material for both defense and light industry.

The Financial Times reported that leading arms manufacturers, including Sweden's Saab and Germany's Rheinmetall, have warned that Europe is overly dependent on cotton fiber from China, which accounts for just under half of global trade. The largest importers of the material are Germany, Sweden and Belgium.

According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, in the 2024/2025 agricultural marketing year, global cotton production was 119.9 million cotton bales (traditionally, statistics define the weight of a cotton bale as 480 pounds, which is approximately 218 kg).

China leads the way, producing 32 million bales of cotton, accounting for 27% of global cotton production. India is in second place with 24 million bales of cotton (20%). It is followed by Brazil with 17 million (14%), the United States with 14.4 million (12%), Australia with 5.6 million (5%), Pakistan with 5 million (4%), Turkey with 3.95 million (3%), Uzbekistan with 3 million (3%), Argentina with 1.3 million (1%), and Benin with 1.26 million (1%).

The European Union is in 11th place with a production of 1.24 million cotton bales (1% of world production)

"If we look at the structure of the EU cotton market today, 45% of cotton is supplied to the EU market from the European Union countries themselves. These are primarily Greece, Spain, and Bulgaria. That is, the south of Europe already grows cotton. But 55% of this demand on the European Union market is covered by imports from third countries, and these suppliers are Asian countries. But first of all, Turkey accounts for the largest share in the supply of cotton to the European Union," explains Olga Trofimtseva.

Ukrainian cotton can become an element of European security. It is necessary to systematically demonstrate and discuss at the diplomatic level that the issues of collective security and the reliability of supplies of strategic raw materials necessary for defense are at stake.

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The article was prepared specifically for the Defense project.

Authors:

Kornienko Dmytro, political scientist, founder of the international analytical community "Resurgam"

Lysovenko Denys, researcher in the field of military-political security and international conflicts of the international analytical community "Resurgam"