Red Book aircraft. Will the Russians be able to restore strategic aviation after "Web"?
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine has repeatedly managed to hit Russian strategic bombers and scarce and terribly expensive long-range radar detection aircraft.
But there was simply no point in analyzing the consequences, because from Soviet times the Russians had enough aircraft left over for several such wars. To replace one destroyed ship, they simply took another.
Everything changed after the SSU's "Spiderweb" operation, when dozens of strategic aircraft were hit by FPV drones in one day. The security service reported 41 hit aircraft worth $7 billion. But what does this mean in practice?
While the enemy's massive material and reputational losses from this attack are undeniable, the real combat and strategic losses are not so obvious.
Defense analyzed which Russian aircraft have been hit since the beginning of the full-scale war, what is their significance on the battlefield, how many such aircraft remained in reserve, and whether Russia has retained the ability to repair, modernize, and build new strategic ships.
Surgical blows
To begin with, let's recall how Operation "Spiderweb" was carried out. These were strikes on 4 different airfields located thousands of kilometers apart: Olenya, Belaya, Dyagilevo and Ivanovo.
Drone operators were trained from the very beginning to hit the weakest points: fuel tanks, suspended missiles and avionics. The drones were equipped with special warheads that burned through the fuselage of the aircraft before exploding. Thus, if not an explosion, then a fire due to fuel ignition could destroy the aircraft or render it very "difficult to lift".
In addition to the bombers, the operation targeted two A-50U aircraft, which were at least partially damaged in the attack. These are long-range radar detection aircraft (LRDV), which help the Russians detect Ukrainian aircraft and guide missiles at them. After "Spiderweb", the Russians spread information that these aircraft were supposedly "sedimentary" and not working. However, the team from the OSINT community Cyber flour denied this.
The Dnipro Osint researcher, using satellite images, counted the number of aircraft at various airfields. In total, there were about 180 aircraft, including transport aircraft.
According to NATO representatives, at least 40 aircraft were hit. The Cyber Flour community, using open sources and videos, was able to confirm the damage to 22 aircraft and determine the type of these aircraft.
In the following analysis, we will consider only confirmed losses. However, it should be borne in mind that this is the lower limit of losses and the number of aircraft actually hit could be more than 40, if previous successful operations are also taken into account.
What was destroyed?
The first type of aircraft affected is the most important for enemy missile strikes – the Tu-95 in various modifications. The Tu-95 MS is capable of launching up to 4 cruise missiles, and the MSM modification – up to 8 missiles per sortie.
These aircraft are valuable to the Russians because of the high lifespan of their wings, fuselage, and turboprop engines. This allows the aircraft to fly many flights before replacing key components that are in short supply due to the complexity of production. And enough aircraft were built during the Soviet era to keep the fleet in working order for a long time through "cannibalism" - the use of parts from one aircraft to support others.
In December 2022, during the preparation of another missile attack, a Ukrainian drone flew to Engels airfield and damaged one Tu-95MS. This was a nice addition to the piggy bank of the destruction of Russian strategic aviation, but it still had no global impact.
According to Military Balance, as of the beginning of 2025, Russia had as many as 58 Tu-95MS in various modifications. Russian defense industry expert Pavel Luzin estimated the number of operational aircraft at 26 units. There are also less optimistic estimates. According to Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat in an interview with UP, the Russians had 36 operational aircraft in service. The rest are used as spare parts donors.
After Operation "Spiderweb", Dnipro Osint confirmed the destruction of 8 Tu-95 aircraft by drones, including at least two of the latest MSM modification. And this is only what is visible on satellite images. In reality, there may be more.
If all the affected planes were working aircraft, not "donors", then this already causes the enemy certain problems.
The fact is that new ships have not been produced for a long time, as well as their NK-12 engines - they are only overhauled and modernized. Accordingly, the restoration of such a number of Tu-95s even in the medium term is unrealistic, and the stocks of donor aircraft will gradually run out.
What this will mean on the battlefield right now is another question. The short-term consequences of the Tu-95's downing were evident during the Russian missile strikes on June 6 and 17. The Russians were forced to bring in Tu-160s, which had hardly participated in the strike mission until then, to join these attacks.
The main question now is how many planes were actually hit. This will determine whether Russia will be able to find the remaining Tu-95s in reserve and bring them to airfields to maintain its missile strike capability. This may be quite likely, since, according to Ignat, about 10 planes of this type were usually used against Ukraine.
With the Tu-160, which temporarily "replaced" the Tu-95 during the recent missile strikes, things are not so simple either.
These aircraft are the elite of Russian strategic aviation. They can carry up to 12 cruise missiles in a single sortie. They owe this payload to turbojet engines, which are significantly more powerful than the Tu-95.
But what makes these planes so formidable is also their weak point. The resource of the basic engines of the Tu-160 is 2-3 times less than that of the Tu-95, since they operate under much higher loads. Therefore, they are used very rarely against Ukraine.
These aircraft are unlikely to be able to replace the Tu-95 on a permanent basis, also due to their number. And although not a single Tu-160 has been damaged by Ukrainian attacks, according to Military Balance, the enemy currently has 16 of them in service. According to Yuri Ignat, only 10-12 of them are in working order.
Unlike the Tu-95, the Russians have almost managed to resume production of the new Tu-160. Since 2015, they have begun work to resume production, as well as a program to modernize existing aircraft to the Tu-160M level. During this modernization, the aircraft received more reliable engines, as well as updated avionics.
In 2018, a contract was signed for the construction of 10 new aircraft by 2027. The Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) noted in a comment to Oborontsi that these "new aircraft" are actually being built using airframes and other components made back in the days of the USSR.
But even under such conditions, the Russians' plans are noticeably hampered. As Luzin notes, the situation with the new Tu-160M is more like an anecdote.
In December 2023, the former Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Shoigu, announced that the army had received 4 Tu-160M missile carriers. A little later, in January 2024, the commander of the Russian Strategic Aviation reported on the completion of the delivery of aircraft to the army. Then, in December 2024, the new Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Belousov, said that in 2025 the same 4 Tu-160Ms would enter service with the army.
It seems that the aircraft reported by Shoigu and Belousov are still at the Tupolev plant in the final stages of work. At least, this is evidenced by the absence of any processes for the transfer of aircraft, which are inherent in such transfers.
One of the Russian reports also noted the construction of at least two more aircraft at the Tu-160 manufacturer's plant, but the status of their production is unknown.
And while the Russians are slowly continuing to build Tu-160s for themselves, they also need to keep the rest of their bombers in working order by carrying out maintenance and repair work. According to Luzin, it has been 10 to 15 years since the old Tu-160s were repaired, which means the planes will soon need another overhaul.
Accordingly, if Russia continues to use the Tu-160 in its daily missile attacks, the design features of these aircraft will soon make themselves felt.
The most numerous losses in Operation Spiderweb were inflicted on Tu-22M3 aircraft. They differ from the previous two and perform specific tasks. They were used to bomb Mariupol with 3-ton bombs, and the main missile for them is the Kh-22/32 anti-ship missile.
According to Ignat, these missiles are some of the most powerful and at the same time the least accurate, as they are designed to attack aircraft carrier groups, not ground targets. Since the beginning of the major invasion of Ukrainian cities, more than 400 of them have been launched, and they have repeatedly hit civilians.
According to the GUR, as of 2023, Russia had 27 serviceable Tu-22M3 aircraft, and another 2 were under repair.
Russia lost the first aircraft of this type in 2023, when the Defense Forces managed to destroy one aircraft and damage another with the help of drone drops. In 2024, the Ukrainian Air Force, together with the GUR, shot down another aircraft in the waters of the Sea of Azov, which was returning after launching missiles over Ukraine. A modified Soviet S-200 air defense system was used for this. And the SSU's "Spiderweb" has already destroyed at least 12 more, if we count only visually confirmed losses.
There is no production of these aircraft in Russia. In 2018-2022, there was a modernization program to the level of the Tu-22M3M, which would allow the use of new types of more accurate weapons. However, the fate of this program is currently unknown. And if we consider that the modernized Tu-22s were to receive the same engine as the new Tu-160s, we can assume that the Russians will give priority to the Tu-160, and the restoration of these aircraft will be postponed until better times.
On the other hand, the Tu-22M3 is not a key carrier of Russian high-precision cruise missiles, like the Tu-95 and Tu-160, so a tangible combat effect from their loss should not be expected.
Among other affected strategic vessels, the A-50U long-range radar detection aircraft (LRDV) stand out. They are one of the most valuable aircraft in the Russian arsenal. This is a command post with a powerful radio-technical complex capable of detecting air and surface targets at a distance of hundreds of kilometers. These aircraft are actively involved in conducting hostilities against Ukraine, which poses an extreme threat to Ukrainian pilots of aircraft and helicopters, as they direct air defense missiles and aircraft at Ukrainian pilots.
According to Pavel Luzin, the Russian Federation had 9 A-50U aircraft in service by 2024.
In January and February 2024, the SOU managed to shoot down 2 A-50U aircraft. To shoot down one of them, the Defense Forces used the already mentioned S-200 air defense system. And 2 more aircraft were damaged as a result of Operation "Spiderweb".
Thus, 4 out of 9 Russian A-50Us were eliminated from the game. As the GUR told Defense, usually the Russians actively involve 4 such aircraft in hostilities with Ukraine. Therefore, the losses of the Russians' AWACS aircraft are gradually approaching a level that can directly affect their combat capability.
On the other hand, the enemy still has a certain number of unmodified A-50s in stock, which can also be used or upgraded to the A-50U level.
The cost of radio equipment on each of these aircraft is hundreds of millions of dollars, and its production and installation requires specialized specialists who know how to work with old Soviet technologies.
Although the Russians are capable of producing aircraft such as the IL-76MD, which are used as the basis for the A-50, manufacturing and installing all the necessary onboard electronics under sanctions conditions is an extremely difficult task.
To simplify the work, the Russians can use preserved A-50s, updating the onboard equipment on the aircraft. However, how long such modernization will take is unknown. According to the GUR, the Russians are not capable of producing new aircraft of this type, but they are investing a lot of effort in their support.
There is also a program to create a new A-100 anti-aircraft missile system, which was supposed to replace the old A-50s. According to the GUR, these aircraft were still undergoing testing in 2024. At the same time, Russian military propagandist Ilya Tumanov, also known as Fighterbomber, citing his own sources, stated that the A-100 program had been canceled.
What exactly happened to the A-100 project is a mystery, but back in 2013, when there were no sanctions, the Russians were complaining about the complexity of the project. This was due to design problems, constant work delays, and the lack of an aircraft on which the equipment was to be installed - the IL-76MD-90.
Save Private "Tu"
If we try to give a general assessment of the consequences of "Spiderweb" and other operations to destroy strategic aircraft, we can conclude that now the enemy's losses have stopped somewhere on the verge of resulting in a serious decline in combat capabilities. In some cases, this boundary has even been crossed.
Balancing the enemy on such a threshold means that each subsequent lost ship will hit much harder in terms of the ability to launch missile strikes and conduct long-range radar reconnaissance than each destroyed aircraft in 2022-2024. And the new "Spiderweb" will already mean disaster for the enemy.
It seems that the Russians understand this too. After "Spiderweb", they relocated their own planes even further away - to the "Ukrainka" airfield, 6,000 km from the front line.
As of June 15, there were 37 Tu-95 aircraft at this airfield, some of which are potential donors of spare parts for repair. More and more aircraft have begun to be deployed at air bases located 6,000 to 7,000 kilometers from Ukraine. This is already creating an additional logistical burden on the aircraft. Such flights from base to base to deliver strikes will require a lot of time and valuable engine life.
According to the GUR, the Russians are unable to resume production of new strategic and long-range aircraft due to the loss of key technologies, a lack of qualified workers, and a shortage of components, including Western ones.
Russia's strategic aviation is a legacy of the USSR, which the Russians are not only unable to fully produce, but also have difficulties supporting. Because of this, the result of "Spiderweb" will definitely have a long-term effect.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the consequences of the operation could have been even more painful for the Russians if Ukraine had not handed over a number of aircraft to its future enemy in the 2000s.
Then, in exchange for a discount on gas, Ukraine gave Russia 8 Tu-160 aircraft, 3 Tu-95MS and over 500 Kh-55 missiles. It is known that at least one of the transferred Tu-95MS, named "Izborsk", participated in missile attacks on Ukraine.
The transfer of Ukrainian Tu-160s most likely saved their current operation in the Russian Federation, since out of 27 aircraft produced during the USSR, 19 were based in Ukraine. Radio Liberty journalists identified 6 former Ukrainian aircraft that the Russians are now using for missile attacks. Thus, if Ukraine had not transferred 8 of its aircraft, the Russians would now have 11 Tu-160s of various versions in service. This would have significantly weakened their combat potential.
The state of Russian strategic aviation is clearly not the worst it has ever been, as in the 2000s, planes were not flying at all. However, it is now far from its peak.
Further losses of anti-aircraft missiles by the Russians will allow Ukrainian aviation to spread its wings and participate more actively in defeating the Russians.
And the recent missile attacks involving the Tu-95 and Tu-160 simultaneously showed that the Russians could be driven into a deficit when the number of missiles launched is limited by the number of available aircraft. Especially if such attacks continue.