Thanks to combat aircraft, the Ukrainian military destroys enemy missiles, drones, drops bombs, launches cruise missiles, and imposes its game in the sky on the enemy.
The Swedish Jas 39 Gripen fourth-generation fighter jets, manufactured by SAAB, are one of the few fourth-generation combat aircraft assembled in Europe. SAAB is also taking steps to develop a fifth-generation fighter in an attempt to catch up with American and Chinese competitors.
From time to time, hints appear in the information space about negotiations between Ukraine and Sweden about the possible transfer of Jas 39 Gripen aircraft to our Air Force.
The last time was in early August. President Zelenskyy said that "a strong project for decades regarding combat aviation" is being prepared with the Swedes.
Sweden allowed Ukrainian pilots to be trained on Gripens as early as 2023. However, it is unknown whether the story went beyond talks, as Western countries focused on the transfer and training of personnel for F-16 aircraft, which are much more profitable to master due to their large number on the world market.
But from time to time, similar discussions about Swedish fighters continue to surface, and the prospect of being armed with these modern aircraft does not leave the minds of Ukrainian aviation experts.
How did the Swedish planes perform in their recent first real combat? Are they competitive? How much can Ukraine hope that SAAB planes will one day join the Air Force fleet?
The international analytical community Resurgam answers these and other questions in a text specially for Defense.
JAS 39 Gripen: which countries use it and why do they choose this particular aircraft?
There are many modifications of the Jas 39 Gripen fighter. The newest among them is the E-series line, represented by the JAS 39 E multi-role fighter, the JAS 39 F two-seat trainer and the JAS 39 Gripen Maritime carrier-based fighter.
This fighter is in service with six countries: Sweden (90 in modifications C and D, and another 60 in modification E are planned to be received by 2030), Brazil (about 10 and about 30 more are expected by 2027), the Czech Republic (14 aircraft on lease), Hungary (14 aircraft and 4 more are expected next year), South Africa (26 aircraft) and Thailand (12 aircraft already in service and 12 more are expected by 2035).
The Colombian president has also announced his intention to purchase up to 24 Jas 39 Gripen aircraft. Peru has also expressed interest (the deal will cover 24 aircraft; the Swedish government has already sent a request to parliament for approval of the deal).
One of the advantages of cooperation with SAAB is that it is ready to share technologies with countries operating Gripen aircraft and open production of individual components there. For example, in 2023, the Gripen (modification E) production line was opened in Brazil. In February 2025, SAAB opened an office in Budapest with the aim of creating an Aviation Development Center by the end of the year, which will specialize in the development of avionics, integration of artificial intelligence and virtual reality technologies, and software development.
Thailand was also granted intellectual property rights to the Link-T data link (a specialized means of communication that provides information exchange between various aviation systems and equipment). For comparison: the American company Lockheed Martin, whose F-16 aircraft are also in service in Thailand, did not agree to provide data link technology.
In addition, Thailand is planning to build a local maintenance and overhaul center, upgrade two Saab 340 Erieye early warning platforms, and provide Thai companies with the opportunity to join the Gripen supply chain, allowing them to produce components such as tires, bearings, clamps (a device for fixing aircraft parts) and airframe parts.
Such steps enable client countries not only to obtain technology and build new production facilities, but also to develop the aerospace industry, innovation, scientific research, and education.
Gripen baptism of fire
Despite the fact that the first production model was manufactured back in 1996, the aircraft's first combat baptism took place only in July 2025 during the short-term hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia.
As is known, the Thai Air Force, using Gripen, carried out a successful attack on Cambodian positions. Brandon Weichert from the American publication National Interest emphasized the great role of Swedish aircraft in the Thai victory: "Support from the Swedish Erieye Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS), also operated by the Thai Air Force, played a key role in reducing the threat and coordinating missions, providing real-time situational awareness, which helped to avoid potential clashes with Cambodian anti-aircraft missile systems."
Comparing the Gripen to the F-16, Brandon Weichert cites the following advantages of the former: "The Gripen's simple and straightforward design played into its hands during the recent war. For example, it has a smaller radar cross-section (RCS) compared to the F-16, making it more difficult to detect by Cambodian radars. The JAS 39's operating costs are also significantly lower than other Western-made aircraft, making it a smart choice for countries with limited military budgets. The Gripen can also operate from shorter runways, making it ideal for rapid deployment from Thailand's mountainous and jungle-like terrain."
The effectiveness of the Gripen is also confirmed by the fact that after the end of the four-day standoff, the Thai government approved the purchase of four more Gripen E/F models for approximately $600 million, as part of a larger plan to purchase 12 fighters. This decision was made against the backdrop of the gradual withdrawal of Thai F-16s from service and, apparently, their replacement with Gripen.
After such "advertising", one can assume that developing countries with limited military budgets but a need to update their aircraft fleet may be interested in purchasing the JAS 39 Gripen. For example, in Latin America or Asia, and possibly in Europe.
SAAB's dependence on the USA
One of the problems of the JAS 39 Gripen is its dependence on the countries that manufacture various components of this aircraft. Of the European 4th generation fighters, the Gripen is the most dependent - primarily on the United States. About a third of the aircraft's components come from the United States. This primarily concerns the General Electric F414G engine, the Honeywell life support system and electronic sensors.
This dependency is a problem due to ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations), a US government regulation. According to ITAR, if a weapon contains American components, the manufacturer must obtain special permission from the US to be able to export it to third countries.
For example, when SAAB was negotiating with Colombia, there were rumors that the US threatened not to transfer engines for aircraft that were later to be supplied to Colombia, or to impose an export ban altogether, in order to persuade Colombia to buy the F-16.
The Colombian authorities and SAAB representatives did not officially confirm such pressure from the US and, in the end, Colombia chose Gripen. However, even the theoretical possibility of the US blocking a deal between SAAB and a third country imposes certain restrictions on the Swedish company's ability to compete with the Americans.
In the 2010s, SAAB tried to find an alternative to the American engine in Europe, but, for unknown reasons, was unable to succeed.
Currently, the management of the concern is looking with hope at the trend of European self-sufficiency in the defense sector. Thus, on March 6, 2024, in an interview with Bloomberg, SAAB CEO Mikael Johansson emphasized that the situation where 80% of European defense spending falls on the US is wrong and that the balance should be changed so that at least 70% remains within Europe.
The Swedes are taking the first small steps to displace the Americans in some segments. For example, in March 2025, the Financial Times reported that SAAB was offering its Scandinavian neighbors the use of its GlobalEye reconnaissance aircraft instead of the American Boeing E-7 Wedgetail. However, the countries still chose the American aircraft.
At the same time, SAAB management is trying to use cautious rhetoric and not criticize the US, probably remembering the company's dependence on American components and seeking to avoid potential problems.
Fifth generation fighter from SAAB
The fifth generation of fighter jets is currently the newest. Aircraft of this generation have low visibility on radars and other sensors, special sensors that allow the pilot to obtain an accurate picture of operations in real time, robust communications, advanced on-board diagnostics, reliable networks that link individual aircraft to create a common, accurate and highly integrated picture of the battlespace for friendly forces, etc.
The current fifth-generation fighters are the American F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II and the Chinese Chengdu J-20. Europe does not produce aircraft of this generation and relies on American fighters. Can SAAB reach a new level and produce fifth-generation fighters?
The Swedish company already has some experience. The first steps in this direction took place back in 2023. At that time, Sweden participated in the British-Italian-Japanese GCAP program, but later it was decided to withdraw from the joint program and develop a new aircraft independently.
On March 22, 2024, SAAB announced that the Swedish Defence Logistics Agency had commissioned a concept study for a future Swedish fighter. According to the contract, the study is to last from 2024 to 2025. The order includes "conceptual studies of manned and unmanned solutions in a systems perspective, technology development and demonstration."
In 2024, SAAB presented conceptual images of the future aircraft. Peter Nilsson, head of Saab's Advanced Programs, noted that "the project will focus on low observability, autonomy and electronic warfare capabilities. These priorities reflect the changing requirements and threat scenarios faced by modern air forces."
On 12 December 2024, some new details were revealed: Saab's future fighter jet will retain the engine, vehicle systems and avionics from the Gripen, but will instead introduce a more stealthy airframe, a new digital foundation, improved communications systems and the integration of artificial intelligence. It is planned to use unmanned aerial vehicles designed to work alongside manned fighters. These drones could serve as decoys to absorb enemy fire or conduct surveillance and precision strikes in high-risk environments.
From May 28 to June 3, SAAB, in collaboration with German defense startup Helsing, conducted combat tests of the Gripen E military aircraft piloted by artificial intelligence against a real pilot, called "Project Beyond." Although the test did not yield definitive results on who performed better – a human or an AI – SAAB was pleased with the results.
“During the flights, the Gripen E handed over control to Centaur (an AI developed by Helsing – author’s note), which successfully autonomously performed complex maneuvers in combat conditions beyond the visual range and gave the pilot the signal to fire,” the company reported on June 11. Combat conditions beyond the visual range refer to air combat in which fighters attack each other at distances exceeding the pilots’ visual range – usually more than 30-50 kilometers. This involves the use of radar and other sensors to detect and target enemy aircraft, rather than visual identification.
Thus, it can be noted that work on the next generation aircraft is in full swing. The only problem for the company may be the time required to develop and start production of this aircraft on an industrial scale. There is information that this process may last until the 2040s or even 2050s.
Thus, the company risks losing out in time, as happened with the JAS 39 Gripen E: competitors are already offering 5th generation aircraft, while the Swedes are offering 4th or, according to some estimates, 4.5th generation aircraft (i.e., those that have some characteristics of 5th generation aircraft). If the processes drag on until 2050, there is a risk that by the time SAAB enters the market with 5th or even 5.5th generation aircraft (due to modifications), competitors will already be offering 6th generation aircraft.
This does not mean that SAAB will be left without customers. In addition to Sweden, which will buy aircraft from its own manufacturer, there will be countries for which 6th generation aircraft will be expensive and will exceed their needs in terms of functionality. However, those countries that have the financial capabilities will likely prefer the latest generation aircraft, as is currently the case in some European countries, even despite the trend towards strategic self-sufficiency.
Can Ukraine rely on SAAB aircraft for its Air Force?
There are arguments both for and against.
As for the arguments in favor, firstly, SAAB aircraft are cheaper and easier to master than more "up-to-date" fifth-generation aircraft. This is a positive factor for Ukraine, given the need to expand the Ukrainian Air Force's aircraft fleet, as well as limited financial capabilities.
Secondly, SAAB's openness to sharing technologies and localizing production or individual elements of production will give Ukraine more independence in terms of providing itself with aviation in the event of new Russian aggression. This could also be useful for Ukrainian engineers and the Ukrainian aviation industry. Ukraine has its own aviation industry and there is currently no reason to exclude the possibility of cooperation between SAAB and Ukrainian manufacturers on joint projects for the localization of individual parts or components of the aircraft.
By the way, the Ukrainian Air Force already has 2 SAAB aircraft in service - though not fighters, but ASC-890 long-range radar detection aircraft.
However, there are also factors against it.
After the end of hostilities, which will happen sooner or later, Ukraine will need to reorganize the Air Force. In particular, there will be a request for unification of the air fleet. It is not known what decisions will be made in this direction, however, if we talk about foreign-made fighters, then the most in Ukraine are currently American F-16 fighters. It can be assumed that the unification of fighters can take place on the basis of this platform.
Technologically, SAAB fighters are significantly behind the American F-35. Given the significant gap in resources between Ukraine and Russia, Kyiv needs to win through quality, not quantity. From this point of view, Ukraine will need the most modern aircraft.
But it is necessary to take into account the limited financial capabilities of Ukraine after the end of the war. Even though the security issue will be key for Ukraine for decades, a situation may arise in which Ukraine will not be able to afford to purchase the latest American fighters, especially if the demand for them remains as high as it is now.
After all, SAAB’s production volume and the list of countries operating its fighters are significantly inferior to its competitors. As of 2024, the number of Gripen produced was about 300, and the number of F-16s produced was over 4,500. Of course, the F-16 is an older aircraft (the first prototype flight took place in 1974, and the Gripen in 1988). However, if we take the arithmetic mean (i.e. 4,500 F-16s divided by 50 years, and 300 Gripen by 36), then it turns out that an average of 90 F-16s were produced per year, and only 8 Gripen.
Therefore, a situation may arise in which, during a new war with Russia, Ukraine will not be able to mass-replace damaged aircraft or obtain parts for them. Due to the small number of countries operating these aircraft, the ability to request assistance in resolving this problem will be significantly limited, not even taking into account that some of these countries may be unfriendly towards Ukraine.
SAAB was able to find its niche in the global market - this is its native Sweden, as well as countries that need high-quality, relatively inexpensive and easy-to-master fighters, given the limited capabilities of these countries in terms of military budgets.
Moreover, the Swedes are taking steps to deepen cooperation with these countries and are negotiating to expand the list of customers. The recent baptism of fire of the Gripen, as well as the willingness to share technology, may contribute to this, and the availability of orders for years to come indicates that SAAB's decline is not in danger in the near future.
But entering the market of countries that can afford the latest aircraft models (in particular, the F-35) is hindered by a significant technological lag behind competitors, even despite the concern's creation of various modifications and the start of work on a new generation aircraft.
It also seems that Gripen will not become the main type of fighter in Ukraine, but cooperation with the Ukrainian aircraft industry to work on other projects is quite possible. It is also not excluded that Ukraine will purchase SAAB aircraft of another type or receive a small number of Jas 39 Gripen in the event of a full-scale war with Russia.
Author of the text: Kostyantyn Glushko, analyst and observer of the Resurgam Center for Northern European Politics