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The Drone Cold War. How the US challenged China in military drones and who's winning?

The Drone Cold War. How the US challenged China in military drones and who's winning?
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In July, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth published a memorandum that aims to "unleash U.S. Military Drone Dominance" and promote the rapid and widespread introduction of small drones into all branches of the United States Armed Forces.

To this end, it is planned to reduce the bureaucratic burden on manufacturers and expand the powers of senior officers, who will be able to independently order drones for their own units. In some ways, this is reminiscent of the experience of Ukraine.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth with military personnel / photo Dvidshub
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth with military personnel / photo Dvidshub

Individual small drones will be considered as "consumer goods". This allows them to avoid compliance with NATO standards STANAG 4856, which provide for the compatibility of interfaces, control systems and data exchange. Thanks to this, the cost and complexity of the design can be significantly reduced.

This way, units can receive drones as regular cartridges or any other ammunition. Lower-level commanders, in turn, independently decide who has the right to fly the drones, as well as purchase and test them.

The United States is quickly adopting Ukraine's experience in using strike drones and, more importantly, is trying to catch up with China, which is the largest drone manufacturer in the world.

The US Army began to more or less systematically "probe" the topic of small kamikaze drones back in 2023, introducing a program called LASSO (Low Altitude Surveillance and Strike). Under this program, the US Army is receiving kamikaze drones that have a thermal camera and an infrared sensor with the ability to launch from a launch tube. Among the requirements is the ability to fly at a distance of about 20 km with a warhead capable of destroying armored military equipment.

Switchblade 300 in use by Ukrainian military / Instagram photo
Switchblade 300 in use by Ukrainian military / Instagram photo

One of the first manufacturers to enter this program was AeroVironment, a company well-known in Ukraine with its Switchblade 300 and 600 drones. The difference between them is in size, range, and power. The 300 has a small warhead that will not cause serious damage to heavy equipment, while the 600 has a warhead like the Javelin ATGM, which is capable of destroying tanks.

The Ukrainian military has spoken highly of these drones. In 2022-2023, 1,425 Switchblades were ordered. Currently, no orders are being placed for the Switchblade 300, and the US Army is at least looking to continue contracting and scaling the Switchblade 600.

The Switchblade 600 alone will not be enough to develop the “drone” part of the American army. This is due to its high cost, which does not correspond to the concept of a cheap means of destruction for expensive enemy equipment. Launching one Switchblade 600 costs about 170 thousand dollars.


But this is just the beginning of American drone history. In the military budget for 2026, a new abbreviation appeared - PBAS. This is a complex of systems that consists of FPV goggles, a controller, a display and 6 different FPV drones. The US Army ordered 1057 such systems, each costing $ 34,826. In March 2025, the US Marine Corps created a unit MCADT, which specializes in the rapid integration of FPV drones into the troops. According to their program, FPV drones should operate at the platoon level at a range of 20 km, there they should cost less than $ 5 thousand.

American FPV drone / photo US Air Force
American FPV drone / photo US Air Force

And although it seems that $5,000 for one FPV drone is a lot, especially against the backdrop of Ukrainian ones that are ten times cheaper, in fact, within the framework of the almost trillion-dollar US budget, this is not a very small amount.

The US Army is trying to activate both its own forces and the private sector. The American military is creating laboratories in its own brigades that are engaged in the development and assembly of FPV drones. Thus, the brigades are able to quickly produce drones of the necessary configuration for the needs of combat operations. Similar mobile workshops have recently been codified in Ukraine.

In addition to manufacturing drones, they still need to be learned to use them. In May 2025, US paratroopers conducted their second training exercise involving small drones.

LUS platoon during exercises / Photo by Defence One
LUS platoon during exercises / Photo by Defence One

Hope for private companies

To catch up with its Chinese opponents, the US Army has already begun searching for private manufacturers capable of producing FPV drones costing up to $2,000 and capable of delivering 10,000 drones within 12 months.

Private companies in the States can indeed scale orders for the army, because they began preparing for mass production of drones earlier, sensing the trend.

DRL (a commercial media company that races drones around the world) is one of the unexpected players in the new military drone market in the United States. Its head, Ryan Hurry, is one of the founders of PDW, a team that designs and manufactures drones for operation in the harsh and changing conditions of modern warfare. The company's products are similar to the Ukrainian drone bombers that the Russians call "Baba Yaga."

Ukrainian soldier sets up Baba Yaga / photo Getty Images
Ukrainian soldier sets up "Baba Yaga" / photo Getty Images

They perform similar tasks: reconnaissance, fire correction and bombing. They are able to operate in electronic warfare conditions and use artificial intelligence to perform tasks. This company won a contract from the US Special Operations Forces for $ 6.9 million and will start production of small FPV drones this year, promising a 1000% increase in production.

Their competitors in this field are another company - highly rated on the stock market Anduril Industries, which has already attracted billions of dollars in investment. It creates drones with a similar purpose called Ghost X. In terms of layout, they resemble small helicopters, capable of conducting reconnaissance missions, as well as carrying out strikes.

Ghost X / Photo by Anduril Industries
Ghost X / Photo by Anduril Industries

Anduril already has its own small FPV drones called BOLT (reconnaissance) and BOLT-M (kamikaze). These drones are similar to classic FPV drones, with a similar range of tasks, but with built-in AI capable of operating autonomously.

In 2024, Anduril received an order for the production of BOLT drones from the US Navy for $6.5 million, but the number of drones produced for this order was not disclosed.

BOLT-M by Anduril Industries / photo Anduril Industries
BOLT-M by Anduril Industries / photo Anduril Industries

Anduril also received a $250 million order to manufacture Roadrunner interceptor drones in 2024. Additionally, the company is collaborating with various military services on anti-drone programs.

And a small startup called Neros Technologies has ambitions to produce up to a million FPV drones per year, but only if it receives an order from the Pentagon. So far, the company’s real capabilities are much smaller. According to Defense News , Neros is capable of producing about 1,500 drones per month and plans to increase this figure to 10,000 units per month by the end of the year. The main drone produced by this company is the Archer – an 8-inch FPV drone that can carry a warhead of up to 2 kg over a distance of more than 20 km.

Archer FPV drone from NEROS / Photo NEROS
Archer FPV drone from NEROS / Photo NEROS

By the way, these drones are already used by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. In February 2025, a contract was signed for the supply of 6,000 units. The financing of this contract was provided by the Drone Coalition. Thus, Western partners, helping Ukraine, made a good investment in the development of their own drone industry.

As NEROS CEO Soren Monroe-Anderson notes, producing high-quality FPV drones in large quantities is difficult. And producing them without Chinese components seems almost impossible.

"Unfortunately, there is still a huge gap in cost and capability between Chinese and Western drone component manufacturing," says Monroe-Anderson.

Despite the fact that the US has a powerful industrial and technological base for drone production, it is unrealistic to compare with China in terms of price. This is due to the difference in safety standards, certification, and strict military requirements.

In addition, labor, material, and quality control costs in the US are significantly higher than in China, where companies enjoy heavy government subsidies and cheap labor. That is why American startups, along with the US Department of Defense, are extremely interested in working with Ukrainian manufacturers.

However, Ukrainian manufacturers are also very dependent on Chinese components. The fully localized drone from Vyriy was only recently introduced to the public and currently occupies a very small market share.

Forbes, citing a study by Drone Industry Insights UG, writes that China now controls 90% of the global drone market. As Josh Steinman, former head of supply chain security at the US National Security Council, noted, "We are almost completely dependent on our main adversary for components and manufacturing capabilities."

A prime example of this is the company Anzu Robotics, which in 2024 announced the creation of American "Mavics" - Raptor and Raptor-T. However, it turned out that the basis for the American drone was the Chinese "Mavic". Not only ideologically, but also technically, using licensed DJI technologies.

American government officials understand the risks that arise from China's influence on the global drone market. And to combat this, they are ready to impose tariffs and other restrictions not only on Chinese drones, but also on their components. Thus, the US authorities want to make the purchase of Chinese electronics for drones unprofitable. All in order to protect American manufacturers and build an isolated drone production ecosystem.

Made in China

China's dominance in the drone industry has long been known. The Chinese company DJI, with its "Mavic" drones, at one point became the manufacturer of one of the key tools in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Initially, the drone was used for reconnaissance, but with the advent of drop systems, it turned into a combat one.

Ukrainian soldier with DJI Mavic 3 in his hands
Ukrainian soldier with DJI Mavic 3 in his hands

With the spread of FPV drones, the influence of Chinese manufacturers of electronics and spare parts began to grow sharply. China is the main supplier of electronics for FPV drones for Ukraine and Russia. Thus, in addition to super profits, Chinese companies also receive invaluable data and hone their production lines specifically for those products that are now effective in the conditions of a major war.

China monitors the use of various types of drones and implements the information received into its army. Unlike the United States, China was much more actively engaged in the development and production of drones, because it had all the economic prerequisites for this and the status of the "factory of the world".

As of 2023, 1.27 million drones were registered in China, and by the end of 2024, 2.2 million. Since these statistics only take into account drones in China itself, leaving out export supplies, it can be argued that Beijing has long since accelerated its own production to hundreds of thousands of drones per month.

According to Chinese government media, by the end of 2022 alone, there were 15,000 companies involved in drone manufacturing in the country.

Although most drones produced by China are used for civilian purposes, the example of Russia's war against Ukraine clearly shows how quickly ordinary drones can be converted to military purposes. And completely civilian production lines can switch to military lines, just as automobile companies once switched to the production of armored vehicles.

This is well understood in China, which is why drone production is a priority in their national strategy of "military-civilian fusion."

Chinese military uses FPV drone / Photo by the Chinese Ministry of Defense
Chinese military uses FPV drone / Photo by the Chinese Ministry of Defense

China's drone industry, as part of this strategy, brings together state-owned giants, universities, and the private sector. State corporations such as AVIC, CASIC, CASC, and CETC are responsible for developing combat drones, control systems, sensor technologies, and electronic warfare capabilities.

The result of this policy of China was the creation of a wide range of drones: from small FPV drones to heavy attack aircraft. These aircraft are used for reconnaissance, as well as for pinpoint strikes, electronic warfare, information transmission and "swarm" attacks in case of loss of communication.

Civilian manufacturers are actively involved in the production of drones for the Chinese military. In some videos, you can see how ordinary agricultural drones are equipped with ammunition drop systems, which makes them an analogue of the Ukrainian so-called "Baba Yaga".

An agricultural drone that has been re-equipped to drop ammunition / Photo X
An agricultural drone that has been re-equipped to drop ammunition / Photo X

In addition to production, China is also actively preparing for the use of drones - mastering new tactics for using FPV drones, in particular those used in Ukraine. The Chinese military is studying the use of conventional drones, fiber-optic, as well as drones with "machine vision". The training uses conventional "disposable" kamikaze drones or with ammunition drop systems in combination with "Mavics" for damage control.

To conduct such exercises, China has equipped special training grounds with obstacle courses, drone repair workshops, and training classes. The military practices interaction between infantry and drones, where the drone accompanies and covers the infantryman. All such operations are monitored from the air thanks to drones with thermal or night vision cameras.

A Chinese military man prepares an FPV drone for takeoff / Photo by the Chinese Ministry of Defense
A Chinese military man prepares an FPV drone for takeoff / Photo by the Chinese Ministry of Defense

Additionally, the PRC is developing drone carriers that are capable of launching drones in "swarms." On May 19, the first drone carrier, the Jiu Tian SS, was unveiled, which launches 100 FPV drones that will be controlled as a "swarm."

Jiu Tian SS drone carrier with possible weapons / photo Chinese media
Jiu Tian SS drone carrier with possible weapons / photo Chinese media

The active demonstration of the integration of drones into the Chinese army looks more like party propaganda from the outside, which will make the enemies of the communist regime tremble. But no one has doubted for a long time that China is preparing for the mass use of combat drones, as well as the availability of a production base for this. But how effective their model is will become known only in the course of real combat operations.

Party or democracy?

China's long-standing involvement in the drone market has given it the kind of starting position it could only dream of. The ability to produce hundreds of thousands of cheap drones and the ongoing process of integrating them into the army creates the image of a modern army capable of responding to any conventional threat. The approach of merging the civilian and military sectors provides China with high production rates and, most importantly, flexibility in adapting to its own needs.

It seems that the United States is still lagging behind its opponent. Pete Hegset noted that by 2026, all US units should be equipped with small drones. However, it is not yet known whether the American system, together with manufacturers, will be able to realize this vision in such a short time.

Despite efforts to implement mass programs for the army, production volumes and product prices still do not allow competing with the Chinese market on a scale. At the same time, the US can compensate for this with technological breakthroughs - the integration of AI, autonomous systems and the extensive use of the combat experience of allies, including Ukraine.

The development of private companies, increased mass production, and accumulated combat experience are the keys to creating more flexible and high-tech solutions. Not only technological leadership, but also the future balance of power in the global security architecture depends on who masters this dynamic faster.

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