Analysts at Counterpoint Research have lowered their forecast for smartphone shipments growth in 2025, from an expected 4.2% to just 1.9%. Despite positive dynamics in most regions, Donald Trump's tariffs will seriously affect the markets of North America and China.
In a new report, the company notes that price increases due to cost shifting remain a key focus, but the focus will be on the two companies that dominate the US market – Apple and Samsung.
“All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia,” says Counterpoint Deputy Director Liz Lee.
Lee notes that despite the reduced forecast, the company still expects positive growth in Apple smartphone shipments in 2025, in particular due to the good results that the iPhone 16 series showed in the first quarter of 2025. Currently, iPhones are showing good results in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Gulf countries.
Counterpoint's current forecasts assume a stable customs environment in 2025, but note that there is still uncertainty on this issue, particularly regarding trade policy, which could affect prices.
The analyst firm also notes that while Apple and Samsung are struggling, Huawei will see a significant increase in smartphone shipments. Counterpoint says that this may not be enough to break through the Chinese company globally, but it will definitely help the brand establish itself outside of China in the medium term.
