Analysts believe that China's launches of mega-constellations of space internet satellites, which will compete with SpaceX's Starlink, could clog low-Earth orbit for centuries. This is reported by SpaceNews.
These are the space internet satellites of the Chinese projects Qianfan ("Constellation of a Thousand Sails") and Guowang, the launch of which into orbit began in August and December 2024, respectively. As of now, five launches of the Qianfan constellation have been carried out, with a frequency of one launch every one and a half months, and 90 satellites are already in orbit. The Guowang satellites have been launched twice, but their number and characteristics are classified. In general, it is planned that the number of launches will increase. By the end of 2025, there should be 648 Qianfan devices in orbit, and the final size of the constellation will be 15,000 satellites!
The problem is that despite new global regulations and growing concerns about space debris, China is leaving the spent upper stages of its Long March 6A and Long March 8 rockets in space rather than bringing them back to Earth. They could remain in low Earth orbit for more than a century.
There will be some 1,000+ PRC [People’s Republic of China] launches over the next several years deploying these constellations. I have not yet completed the calculations but the orbital debris mass in LEO will be dominated by PRC upper stages in short order unless something changes. For both constellations, the rocket upper stages are being left in high altitude orbits — generally with orbital lifetimes greater than 100 years.Jim Schell, orbital debris expert at Novarum Tech
The problem is also that the Qianfan satellites operate at much higher altitudes than Starlink. Above 1000 km for Qianfan, 700-900 km for Guowang versus 550 km (most devices) for Starlink. This means that the rockets that will launch Chinese satellites will remain in orbit much longer. While SpaceX generally burns the upper stages of Falcon 9 rockets and Starlink devices that are decommissioned in the atmosphere in a controlled manner.
Leaving those rocket bodies at 700-800 km altitude is incredibly irresponsible. China is just beginning to launch its very large constellations so there is time to fix this before it becomes a grave danger.Victoria Samson, Chief Director of Space Security and Stability, Secure World Foundation.
Whether China will heed these warnings remains a rhetorical question.